Donald Trump is in court again and his attorney buddy (in 2016), Michael Cohen, is testifying against him on the issue of 'reverse engineering' of his real estate assets. This idea (of reverse engineering) has been around for decades and I watched real estate developers use this concept so as to PUMP UP their financial assets for lenders (especially during times of high inflation). Lenders like to lend to borrowers who are rich and who grow their assets over time. It's all a game of ego and image! Valuations can change from appraiser to appraiser! It's a subjective science/art.
Donald Trump has done this (asset manipulation) with his hotel properties and this allows him to claim that his net worth is in the billions (he claims some $7 billion). The idea of using fraudulent financial statements to get higher/better loan terms has been going on for decades. When I lived in Wisconsin, I had my own brokerage/appraisal company. My real estate developer clients used this concept of 'reverse engineering' of assets on a regular basis. It's all done to impress 'lenders' who are mostly uneducated on issues of asset valuations (especially during times of high general inflation).
A typical developer would/could pump up his asset valuations (by double or more) so as to give the impression that his net worth was growing over time. One of my developers would pump up his valuations by five/ten times. It's rather easy to do in an inflationary economy. I can use a fraudulent number for rents, for net income, for expenses, or a fraudulent Cap Rate. This can pump up asset valuations by double and more. If lenders are unaware of the valuation game this works for developers who need HIGH net worth statements!
The idea that Donald Trump is innocent of this procedure is not creditable. He claims his residence at Mara-a-Lago, 126 room hotel facility, is worth $1 to $1.5 billion. Is this creditable? I don't think so. The facility has only some 62,500 square feet of floor space. Trump purchased the property in 1985 for some $7 - 10 million (with added personal property). He has his permanent residence at the facility...now called a CLUB. I am sure he has added many changes over the years to the facility. This might add some value to the overall facility.
In 2022, Forbes appraised the property at $350 million (probably a high valuation). Yet Donald Trump would add this property to his financial statement with a plus $1 billion valuation. Many will buy into this elevated valuation as lenders mostly do not know much about valuation science (art). My valuation (today) would be (say) $200 million. So the Donald is using 'reverse engineering' so as to pump up this valuation some five or more times. Why is this possible?
It's possible because valuation of an asset is subjective and emotional. If income is used to value this property its value would be not more than $200 million (probably less). But if sales comparables (specially selected) or cost information (specially manipulated) are used then a value of $1 billion might be possible (as the valuation game is subjective and values can be manipulated by valuation methodologies). I watched this game play out when I was in the profession (back in the 1970's and 80's). An inflationary economy helps this process! Also, lenders tend to buy into value manipulation if they need to get loans into the market!
When our economy crashes (some point down the road from today) we will experience huge deflation in asset valuations. Trump's hotel properties could drop by 80-90% or more. The valuation game is very subjective and reverse engineering works especially well when 'inflation' is high and growing. Will the Donald get caught on this asset manipulation scheme? This is likely. A huge fine would be the result. Watch his trial in New York for further details. Valuation is a game of ego and number manipulation. It's as OLD as real estate history.
A complicated property with many changes (over time) can be valued (subjectively) at many different numbers ($$$$$$$$$). Trump wants his club/residence to be worth $1 to $1.5 billion. Another buyer might value this property at a much lower number. It's all a game of ego/manipulation/valuation game. Inflation enhances valuation. Deflation can drop the numbers quickly! Lenders will accept a high number during times of high inflation. Valuation is a game of 'number' manipulation!
I am: Donald B. Swenson, Economist/Philosopher, donaldswenson.blogspot.com.
http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com
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