Understanding Economics and Money

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Wednesday, June 28, 2023

TWO Issues: Biden Crime Family, Digital Money via our Central Bank!





Two big issues are facing American's. The issue of Hunter Biden's plea deal, yet to be finalized. And the coming CBDC digital dollar which would start the Mark of the Beast economy for American's and the World. These are huge issues that will arrive to test the support of American's and our world citizens on issues of politics and economics. Let's review some of the core issues of each of these situations:

1. The Biden crime situation. Where does this lead and what does it mean?

2. The Digital dollar ($) situation. Where does this lead and what does this mean?

Today's Wall Street Journal revealed that the Judge who will settle the Hunter Biden plea deal (now in progress) will be Judge Noreika of Delaware. This Judge can trash this plea deal if she desires. The key date is Wednesday, July 26. Many pundits are saying that trashing this plea deal is precisely what needs to happen. Hunter Biden has many skeleton's in his political closet. The biggest is his work to increase the wealth of the Biden family via illegal means.

We have serous evidence that the Biden family has received MILLIONS of dollars from foreign sources (some were prior enemies of the USA). Some 20 Limited Liability Corporations have been used to funnel million of $$$$$$ to Joe, Hunter, and some seven members of the Biden family. Whistle blowers are now providing new evidence which 'smells' much like BRIBERY and/or TREASON if the evidence is validated. Will our House Oversight Committee get to the bottom of all these serious issues?

My sense is YES. Joe has been in politics for over 47 years and his foreign contacts are many. It does appear that Joe (via his son and other key associates) have used illegal means to acquire MILLIONS for their personal coffers. It appears that the Higher Authorities (like the FBI and the DOJ) and subsidiary personnel have 'covered up' much of the crimes perpetrated by the Biden clan (especially Hunter Biden and Joe Biden). Some individuals who need to testify in front of our House Oversight Committee are the following:

1. Ms. Lesley Wolf, Assistant attorney in DOJ on issues of IRS matters.

2. David Weiss, attorney of Delaware, who approved the Plea Deal for Hunter Biden.

3. Merrick Garland, U.S. Attorney General, who controls issues of the Law on all these matters.

4. Hunter Biden, son of Joe Biden, who used his influence to funnel millions of dollars to the Biden Crime Family (mostly during the time when Joe was Vice President under the Obama administration). The numbers are now in the multi-millions.

5. Joe Biden, the President of the USA, who is alleged to have committed 'bribery/treason' if the current evidence collected by the House Oversight Committee is valid. Goes by the 'name' BIG GUY!

6. The various attorneys who set-up the many LLC's used to funnel funds from foreign sources to the Biden Family. Bank records seem to suggest that some 20 companies were used to hide funds from the American public. All this is a form of 'bribery/treason' if the evidence is valid. Who set-up the LLC's? Usually, this is done by select personal attorneys.

7. The various family members of the Biden Crime Family, such as Hallie Biden, James Biden, Sarah Biden, Kathleen Buhiel, Melissa Cohen, Caroline Biden, and others. 

8. Rob Walker, a business associate of Hunter Biden (used to funnel $$$$$$ via select LLC's).

9. Gabriel Popoviciu, a wealthy Romanian executive, who worked with Hunter Biden.

10. James Gillian, another business associate of Hunter Biden.

11. Tony Bobulinski, former Navy Lieutenant and business partner of Hunter Biden.

12. Bank officials who supplied evidence of the many LLC's which were used to funnel $$$$$ to the Biden Crime Family.

13. The various whistle blowers within the IRS and/or other entities.

House Oversight Committee is holding hearings on all the issues of the Biden Crime Family!



Is this Big Guy guilty or innocent? Is he above the LAW? Who can get to the bottom of the issues?

The next BIG issue for American's to discern is this coming CBDC (Central Bank digital currency issue). If this happens then it is my opinion that the Mark of the Beast economy is here. We all have digital money NOW but control is not totally in the hands of our Central Bank (as yet). In July the Fed is scheduled to adopt the FED NOW system for settling money transactions. This is a crucial step in the emergence of a CBDC.

My sense is that a CBDC (dollar) will arrive later in 2023 or early 2024. When this happens all deposits will be controlled by our Central Bank. This 'independent' entity will then control the entire American economy via their policy decisions. A digital dollar (under the control of our Central Bank) is essentially similar to Communism. All money transactions will be programmable and under the auspices of those who issue this CBDC. You and I will be members of this Central Bank (in some form). All banks will be mere proxies of our Central Bank (which controls all this imaginary/virtual money). To buy and sell we will need to use this CBDC.

The dangers of this situation will become evident over time. A few elites (hiding within the Central Bank system) will determine all monetary policy and value situations. Decisions will emerge from select (unelected) policymakers who hide behind closed doors to further their goals and ideas. You and I will be victims of the system. Our monetary freedoms will be restricted (especially if we do not conform to the mantra's of the Central Planners). This virtual system of money could emerge later in 2023 or by the end of 2024. All depends on what policies are implemented and how quickly.

The system which is emerging is called the Mark of the Beast financial system. It is a system which was prophesied to occur. Revelation 13 gives us some details. The system will not solve our problems of commerce but it will give us a form of Communism for the markets. Central Planning will be used to funnel virtual/imaginary money to the citizens. Those in control will use this Centralized System to further their goals of ruling the planet. In time, the entire system will be rejected by the people. But for now we are heading for this SYSTEM. Watch the FED NOW operation which is supposed to start in July for more details. A CBDC could happen by the end of 2023 or some time in 2024.





The guy (or similar) would administer the CBDC from hidden offices which operate behind closed doors. Decisions would flow from a Central Source to the general markets. Unelected elites would live in luxury as the masses are asked to show an identity number to buy and sell. It's all Criminal!

Have a great day! I am: Donald B. Swenson, Economist/Philospher, donaldswenson.blogspot.com.

http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com



Tuesday, June 27, 2023

From Where did Yeshua/Jesus get his Power/Talents/Behavior? Who was his SOURCE?

 


John MacArthur, is pastor of Grace Community Church, in Sun Valley, California. Some 10,000 members follow this pastor. His ministry goes out to millions. At 84, this pastor is a strong believer in Jesus as his Lord and Savior. The issue today is 'Where did this Jew from Nazareth get his Power/Talents'? Did he originate his Power/Talents from his brain (himself) or was he 'empowered' by a transcendent SOURCE (greater than himself)!

In the above video, MacArthur claims that I have three choices with respect to this Jew from Nazareth. He was either 'delusional', demonic, or divine'. My view is that this Jew was actually 'anointed' by his Source and given his talents/power by his Source. He did not originate any of his POWER and/or AUTHORITY. It all was GIVEN to him by his God. His God was the God of Israel who many call Yahweh (or Father).

Millions of believers listen to John and his preaching as he has written some 150 books and speaks via his media to members and followers (internationally). I listen to John as he does have a gift for history and logic. But his view on the Jew from Nazareth does not ring true to me. The Jew never claimed to be God (divine) and his behavior reveals that he viewed himself as a servant (not a Principle).

In reality, Yeshua/Jesus lived on this planet from around 4 B.C. to 33 A.D. During his lifetime he had many experiences. He learned his Torah from the rabbi's at the Temple of Yahweh in Jerusalem. He was a child of Mary and Joseph and he had some four brothers and two (or more) sisters. He was a cousin of John the Baptist. He followed the ministry of his cousin, John, and he was baptised by his cousin at age 33 +-. He then started his own ministry after John was beheaded for his moral views on issues of King Herod Antipas.

Yeshua, had a special epiphany at his baptism with John (in the Jordan River). This event produced his mindset on the Kingdom of his God. He felt that he was 'anointed' by his God at this event. This 'anointing' gave Yeshua the desire to pursue his ministry promoting the Kingdom of his God. This led to his calling select disciples to help him. Twelve were chosen and later some 70 total were sent out to promote is Gospel of the Kingdom. All this led to his confrontation with the elites at the Sanhedrin.

After some three years of ministry, Yeshua, entered Jerusalem to announce his role as Messiah of Yahweh. This led to his rejection by the elites (Scribes, Pharisees, and rulers). His claim to be Messiah of Yahweh was viewed as blasphemy and demonic behavior. The elites thought this person was empowered by Beelzebub (Satan). Others viewed Yeshua as delusional. His mother and siblings (on one occasion) viewed him as delusional (Scripture tells us that “not even his brothers believed in him” (John 7:5). 

Jesus' own family rejected him as the Messiah. On one occasion they sought to restrain him for his own benefit: "And when his family heard his viewpoint, they went out to seize him, for people were saying, 'He is beside himself'" (Mark 3:21). So what is reality with respect to his behavior/power/talents?

My sense is that John MacArthur (above video) is deceived about this person we call Yeshua/Jesus. He can not discern that this Jew from Nazareth was a fully human person who RECEIVED his power/talents from a Higher Source. This Higher Source was his God, the God of Israel, who we know as Yahweh.

The idea that Yeshua was self empowered (as God Almighty) is not representative of common sense when we understand the BEHAVIOR of this Jew from Nazareth. This Jew needed continual INPUT from his spiritual SOURCE (Father) prior to executing his talents (casting out demons, healing the sick, etc.). He said, many times, that his Father (meaning Yahweh God) was greater than he. I can do nothing, he said, without first getting my power from my Father. This seems clear when we read this history.

Is John MacArthur and millions of his Christian believers DECEIVED (without knowing it)? I think so! Deception is rampant in this CHURCH community called Christianity. Millions follow spiritual GURUS who think their words are TRUTH when (in reality) their words are LIES (untruth). If believers who seek out independent viewpoints, I think many would ABANDON this community called the Christian Church.

The so-called Church Age is now ending and much of this end is due to all the false teaching which has permeated this community of believers. The so-called TRINITY concept is a big part of all the deception. The idea that this Jew is God Almighty in the flesh is another deception of Christianity. Yeshua never claimed most of the beliefs which are placed in his mouth IMO. Scholars are now recognizing all this deception and apostasy.


This scholar supports the Trinity as valid. He views John's Gospel as his reference point for the Trinity. But if we go to Revelation 4 and 5, then the image of God changes. There is no Trinity. God is Singular in Revelation 4. The glorified Jesus is separate from the Throne of God (Yahweh). So, a person's viewpoint can vary depending on what scripture is believed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JU9J0XVlzQ


Take the time to listen to different viewpoints on all these issues of theology and belief. Truth is my goal and it is my view that Yeshua (Jesus in English) never desired or claimed to be God. His Gospel was actually the Kingdom of his Father God. Revelation 4 is central to my view of who is God! Yeshua was, however, glorified at the point of his physical death. He did ascend to his Father God (Yahweh) after his crucifixion. See Revelation 5 for his current status. Have a great day! 

I am: donaldswenson.blogspot.com.

http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com


Monday, June 26, 2023

Unitarians have it correct IMO: God is Singular, One, Unique, Separate Person, from his Creation!





The concept of ONE God permeates the thinking of many intellectuals of our past. Isaac Newton, Linus Pawling, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, John Quincy Adams, Howard Taft, George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, Clara Barton, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Whitney Young, among hundreds more, all viewed God as singular and not part of a Trinity. Is it now time for the general body of Christianity to accept this thinking?


John 10:30 – Nontrinitarians, such as Unitarians, believe that when Yeshua said, "I and the Father are one," he did not mean that they were actually "one substance", or "one God", or co-equal and co-eternal, but rather that he and the Father have a "unity of purpose", and that the context indicates that Yeshua was saying that they were "one" in their goal (ie, promoting the Kingdom of God).

1 Timothy 2: 5: For there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus. Comment: Jesus is Yeshua (in Hebrew) and God was Yahweh during his lifetime. Can God be removed by man's choice or words or traditions?
Deuteronomy 32:39See now that I, I am He, And there is no God besides Me; It is I who put to death and give life. I have wounded and it is I who heal, And there is no one who can deliver from My hand. Comment: this represents the God of Israel, Yahweh. God is Source of negative and positive events (realities).
Isaiah 43:10

“You are My witnesses,” declares the Lord,
“And My servant whom I have chosen,
So that you may know and believe Me
And understand that I am He.
Before Me there was no God formed,
And there will be none after Me." Comment: Lord is another word for Yahweh. God is Yahweh. His personal 'name' in Hebrew is Yahweh.

Isaiah 44:6

“Thus says the Lord, the King of Israel and Israel's Redeemer, the Lord of hosts:
‘I am the first and I am the last,
And there is no God besides Me.

Isaiah 45:18

For thus says the Lord, who created the heavens (He is the God who formed the earth and made it, He established it and did not create it a waste place, but formed it to be inhabited),
“I am the Lord, and there is none else.

Mark 12:29

Jesus answered, “The foremost is, ‘Hear, O Israel! The Lord our God is one Lord. Comment: Yeshua recognized that his God was the God of Israel (Yahweh).


Ephesians 4:6

One God and Father of all who is over all and through all and in all.

It is obvious, to me, as I read scripture that God uses the personal pronoun 'I' many times to make clear that he (God has no gender) is singular (ONE). Yahweh (Yah) says that his reality is the I AM that I AM. This implies a singularity and a oneness (unique to all others). Hear O'Israel, the Lord, our God is ONE is repeated daily by believing Jews and those within the tribes of Israel. 

Is it now time for believers on planet Earth to recognize the REAL God of history and experience. Yes, God has angels and mediators who act as 'agents' of his WORD. But the God of Israel sits on his THRONE as a Singularity. The Trinity concept needs to be REJECTED as flawed and invalid. This concept creates three god person's and three unique personalities. This should be viewed as Idolatry.

This is the voice of Yahweh (also called our spiritual Father)!


Actors often get worshiped by many innocents who can not discern Idolatry. Did Jesus during his lifetime seek worship of himself? He was a Jew who knew his God as Yahweh. He said that his Father was Greater than himself. Witness the behavior of this servant of Yahweh at Gethsemane! What does this reveal about this messenger? It seem clear to me!






I think we have ample evidence (from the behavior of Yeshua during his lifetime) that his God was 'other' than himself. This Jew viewed his God as the God of Israel and also the Creator of man. His scripture was the Torah. His disciples were fellow Jews (Israelites). His message was to promote the Kingdom of his God. Isn't it time to recognize these obvious spiritual realities? Can mankind avoid the REAL God of planet Earth by worshiping a messenger (agent)? Think on this as you read this missive. Who is GOD? Where is GOD? Does GOD still RULE this planet (world)?

Thomas Jefferson was the main author of our Declaration of Independence. According to Jefferson, we are all endowed by our Creator (God) with special (unalienable) spiritual rights!
Is it now time for One Planet Under God? I think so!


I am: Donald B. Swenson, Economst/Philosopher, donaldswenson.blogspot.com.

http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com 

Sunday, June 25, 2023

The FOLLY of believing in MACRO EVOLUTION! Let's explore the logic/reasons!

Is life derived from prior life (bio-genesis) ? Is life derived from matter/energy (abiogenesis)? Where does life derive from?

I listened to a comprehensive interview with Ex-President Obama today (on the internet). I view this person as very articulate and also a great thinker (on issues of politics and human nature). But does this person have WISDOM? My sense is that this is seriously lacking from his core thinking/education. Barrack says that we are 'all evolved chimps'. Does he believe this? I think so! He, apparently, believes in the theory called Macro Evolution!

Obama's mindset is likely based on his education and his idea that human beings evolved over time (by chance). Our top Liberal Educators promote this idea in their teaching and thinking.  All of reality, according to most Evolutionist's, is based upon this idea called 'chance'. But what is the FOLLY within this mindset? Does this idea called LIFE evolve from chance? Can LIFE evolve? My sense is absolutely NOT. Life is not a 'thing' which emerges from 'chance' and/or some material substance (chemicals or matter). Check out this website for some prior science!

https://nature.berkeley.edu/garbelottoat/?p=582#:~:text=The%20Miller%2DUrey%20experiment%20was,more%20than%20simple%20chemical%20reactions.

Scientist's and Evolutionist's have tried to prove this idea that LIFE is a 'thing' which emerges from MATTER (chemicals or similar). The prior experiment of Miller-Urey (back in the 50's) was done to attempt to create LIFE from chemicals. What happened? Nothing! No LIFE emerged. Why? Could it be that LIFE is not a 'thing' which emerges from MATTER (chemicals)! I think so! My wisdom says that LIFE is not a 'thing'! In reality, LIFE is spirit (an eternal entity). My 'consciousness' (mind) is spirit (not chemicals). My brain is MATTER (electro-magnetic action) but my brain can not create LIFE. What actually 'activates' my brain?

All the evidence within neuro-science can not show the origin of LIFE. Why? Is it possible that LIFE has no 'origin'. Could LIFE be spirit (eternal)! But our scientists and evolutionists continue with their MANTRA that LIFE has an 'origin'. They expect this reality as Macro Evolution demands this idea. Evolution demands that all LIFE and all species evolved from MATTER (chemicals or similar). This MANTRA is held (evidently by Obama) and countless other thinkers/educators. Why is the FOLLY?

There is ZERO evidence that LIFE is a 'thing' which can evolve from some prior 'substance' (matter). Life produces my 'consciousness' and also my 'thinking' (words). Can MATTER produce these outcomes? Where is the evidence? There is ZERO evidence of any of this from our prior experiences. All experience says that LIFE is not a 'thing' and not a 'substance' and not 'matter'. LIFE is lived in the NOW and it can not be reduced to a chemical or some item of matter. This, for me, is IMPOSSIBLE! That's why I view the Evolution theory as FOLLY (a fable). This Theory would need to show where LIFE 'originates' and how it 'originates'. I say this is impossible (therefore FOLLY).

Obama's theory that we are all evolved CHIMPS is not wisdom. It's total folly and a fable. My sense is that he does believe in this fable called Macro Evolution. He has a mindset which is typical of most Liberal thinkers on this issue. Listen to this prior President of the U.S.A. here:

https://youtu.be/jAYVKZSWXhY

Go to 11:16 minute for his comment on us all being chimps. Start with minute 7 for the key interview.

My wisdom says that Macro Evolution is a fable as it can not prove logically this idea that LIFE evolves by chance (from matter). If this is valid, then all our official education on this subject is worthless non-sense and myth. Life derives ONLY from prior Life. Today, millions of deceived thinkers have bought into this THEORY called Macro Evolution. They teach this non-sense in most public institutions of Higher Learning. Articulate thinkers, like Barrack Obama, appear to believe in this THEORY. But, my study leads me to a different conclusion.

The core ideas within our life experiences derive from our 'consciousness'. It's our MIND which produces our thinking and our LIFE situation (experience). MIND is non-physical and non-material. MIND is actually part of this spirit realm which 'transcends' MATTER and substance (chemicals). We live in a DUALISTIC world of Matter and Mind. Dualism is reality as we all LIVE with both Matter and Consciousness (mind). Matter could evolve from 'chance' (in theory) but 'consciousness' can not evolve by chance. This is pure folly when studied in detail.

Our Macro Evolutionist thinkers need to look inward to discover their OWN inner being (which is their 'consciousness'). If they discover this SOURCE, they would need to abandon this THEORY called Macro Evolution by chance (over time). It becomes a FABLE and its adherence is FOLLY. That is my sense from my prior education, experience, and logic. My LIFE is lived in the NOW and this NOW experience demonstrates that my LIFE is not a 'thing' (matter and/or chemicals). Think for yourself on this important idea called LIFE! Where does it derive FROM? Who is the SOURCE? Is it ETERNAL?


What a foolish statement above. Lifeless matter (say a rock) is much different from me and my consciousness. Matter can not produce LIFE!

A 'cell' is already a living entity. The living part did not derive from 'chemicals'! This is the folly of thinkers who buy into Macro Evolution!

The concept of biogenesis is what we all experience in real-time. We witness life coming from prior life. Try to get life from chemicals is pure FOLLY. Wake-up Obama (educators)!


Which came first? The Chicken or the egg? My wisdom says the Chicken! God created this fowl and then this fowl produced an egg! The same goes for man/woman! My viewpoint!

Have a great day! I am: http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com.

donaldswenson.blogspot.com



Friday, June 23, 2023

Five SIGNS which I follow to Discern our Evolving End!


I am convinced that we are living at the time of the end of man's rule. The SIGNS are plentiful and today I will outline five SIGNS which point to this END. All is happening quickly and we should be able to discern this END by the end of 2023. Today, is June, 2023. By the end of December, 2023, I think that the SIGNS will be plentiful for us all to discern. We can sense these SIGNS now. Let's cover the five signs here:

1. The collapse of this Empire called America.

2. The arrival of a global digital CBDC money (replacing all physical money).

3. The end of the Biden administration.

4. The end of the Ukraine/Russian war.

5. The arrival of political chaos on a planetary scale.


America is now some 247 years old. An Empire usually lasts not more than 250 years. The signs of America's decay are everywhere. Our debts are beyond repayment. Our political system is totally polarized and morally corrupt. Morality is subjective and human nature reveals that evil is growing as our justice system collapses. The historical morality of our founders has been rejected.

America's Empire is being rejected by most nations (now some 200 in total). A new BRICS currency system is emerging to challenge the all mighty dollar. Soon the American $ will be rejected by a growing number of nations. This means that America can not live off its past any longer. America will need a RESET which will arrive when the current markets crash. This is likely to happen in 2023.

The FedNow system of settling money transactions arrives in July, 2023. This system will then lead to a CBDC currency run by the Central Bank. Our money will become the sole product of our Central Bank and their administrators. Citizens will be enslaved to a digital control system for buying and selling. As I write, some 114 nations are already transitioning to digital (centralized) currencies. It is obvious that a global digital currency system will be here by the end of 2024.

The Biden administration has created the trend to a digital CBDC currency for America. The FedNow concept will be implemented in July. I propose that our digital stock markets will likely crash in August. This will be an ideal time to transition to a CBDC for the West. The BRICS will produce their CBDC to challenge the West. But both could merge after the War in Ukraine ends. This is likely by 2024.

The Biden political administration is likely to collapse prior to the election of 2024. The House Oversight Committee has ample evidence that the Biden Crime Family has engineered a monetary fraud (to favor the Biden family) which started when Joe was Vice President. Joe Biden has been in politics some 47 years and his corruption is now coming to light. Millions of dollars have been funneled to the Biden family via various corporate entities set up to hide his monetary corruption. The Oversight Committee has produced ample evidence of this corruption.

As I write there are dozens of bank records to substantiate the corruption within the Joe Biden Crime Family. Bank records are hard evidence and there is NO business (known) which Joe established to support his incoming money funds. All these millions of $ arrive as Joe peddles his influence to corrupt foreign entities who desire his political influence. China, Romania, Ukraine and many other countries were involved in the money peddling corruption of Joe, Hunter Biden, James Biden, and select associates who set up the corporate entities. The evidence seems overwhelming to me.

The Ukraine War could be a partial cover for Joe so he can hide his prior misdeeds from the American public. But our newly formed Oversight Committee (now some 100 days in operation) is discovering hundreds of BANK RECORDS which substantiate all the financial corruption. Joe seems like he could be history when this evidence gets to a threshold level. I think this will happen prior to the coming 2024 election. The evidence will grow as more BANK RECORDS are analyzed.

The end of the Biden administration could start a period of political CHAOS within our country (and the world). If Biden's administration is found to be corrupt and dysfunctional the MEDIA will get into the act and make this CHAOS worse. The harbingers to this end are here now. I watch these SIGNS daily for confirmation of the trends. The above five SIGNS are showing that America is history. Our Constitution is history and our Justice system is history.

The EMPIRE called America will soon come to an END IMO. The SIGNS are clear to me. God will likely bring JUDGMENT to AMERICA by the end of 2023. We all live as 'agents' of a Higher Source. This Higher Source rules over planet Earth and our system. Good and Evil are derived from this Higher Source. We humans are mere CLAY in the Big Picture of reality. Our Higher Source is the POTTER. This seems clear to me as I write this missive. America will soon be history and it is all happening quickly.

Think for yourself as you watch these SIGNS and many more. I could document dozens of additional SIGNS. But for this missive the above FIVE are instructive. Our economy, politics, religion, science, and education all POINT to the end of an ERA for mankind. Thinkers have written about these events for years. Following are a few books to consider on this issue. Have a great day! I am: Donald B. Swenson, Economist/Philosopher, donaldswenson.blogspot.com.








Thinkers now recognize that America is basically history. After some 247 years of history our Empire is collapsing in FRONT of our eyes. The SIGNS are now ubiquitous! What does all this MEAN?

http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com



Thursday, June 22, 2023

UPDATE: American/Global Economy! Where are We?


It appears that my prior prediction of August as the month to watch for our global recession is about on schedule to be confirmed. Today, I will cover three indicators which point in this direction for both America and the world. What happens is that there is a LAG in the response to all economic indicators. Prices tend to fluctuate as our consumers are slow to respond to changes within the bigger picture. But a recession is on the horizon and by August we should all notice the trend.

1. Leading Indicators have decreased for 14 consecutive months (pointing to a recession). In the last recession (2008-2009) this indicator continued down for some 22 months. We are now at a point where the trend is obvious but our markets have yet to respond. This will occur by August IMO.

www.conference-board.org

2. Commercial real estate is in serious trouble as our Regional banks are now sellers. This indicator points to a huge drop in value for our commercial real estate sector. It has started but the LAG continues as prices are slow to respond. This will also be obvious by August or September, 2023, however. As real estate goes so goes our economy.

3. Jobless Claims is another indicator which starts slowly and grows over time. This indicator is up for May and I predict that it will be up for June, July, and August. California is leading in jobless claims and this state is usually a leading indicator for the nation. So by August, 2023, we should have this indicator pointing to a big recession for America. What happens in America is likely to affect the planet (in time).


Conclusion: The American economy is heading for a huge recession later this year. My sense is that August will be the month that reveals this reality. It is possible that events could happen faster and/or slower. But my sense is that our key indicators are now pointing to August as the key month for America's next recession.

The last recession was over 14 years prior (2008 - 2009). The bottom of the last recession was in March, 2009. Our Dow was around 6,400 at the time. Our Dow is now near 34,000. This type of bubble has never happened in all prior American history. But it happened as our Central bank caused this event to happen.

Money from heaven emerged as QE flooded the markets. America's Central bank increased their balance sheet some 10 fold (from around $850 billion to nearly $9 trillion. As I write this Central bank is tightening and causing liquidity to disappear from our general markets. Asset bubbles will POP as the coming recession happens. So far nothing serious has happened. But all will change quickly come August IMO.

Economics is difficult to explain to most thinkers. There are so many variables that most pundits can not think deeply enough to discern the major trends. I have been teaching this social science for some 50+ years. I usually get the BIG picture as I follow the indicators closely. I now can say with confidence that a huge RECESSION is on the horizon. Liquidity is being DRAINED from our American and also our global markets.

M2 is declining. The Monetary Base is declining. Lending on commercial real estate is declining. Debt has grown to unsustainable levels. The Local economy is declining even as consumer debt is skyrocketing. Inflation has declined slightly and this event will eventually lead to Deflation (after the recession has arrived). The American dollar has survived (been in high demand) and has allowed Americans to increase consumption somewhat. America's trade deficit is still over $1 trillion (annually).

www.usdebtclock.org

The LAG situation is fooling most consumers and pundits. But the core indicators show that a huge RECESSION is on the horizon. It will arrive slowly but relentlessly IMO. I continue to predict an AUGUST date for the beginning of this event. It is possible that it might arrive SOONER. If our Fed starts another QE program it is possible that this event could be delayed a few months. I do not expect this, however!

Think for yourself as you watch events happen. Have a great day! I am: Donald B. Swenson, Economist/Philosopher, donaldswenson.blogspot.com.

http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

A Solution to the Ukraine/Russian War! Consider!


   
There is a quick and sure solution to the Ukraine/Russian war situation IMO. We need to honor select principles that seem FAIR for all the countries involved. If this done with a mindset of fairness for everyone, then I think a resolution to this conflict could happen quickly and peacefully. What are the KEY principles which I would suggest as core:

  1. We need to considered the SECURITY interests of Russia and the Russian Federation as a priori interests which need to be balanced with the similar interests of NATO. Both NATO and the Russian Federation need to be treated equally as to their SECURITY interests. Both entities live with a military alliance which threatens the other. A demilitarization of both alliances should be considered to change this situation. Demilitarization would be positive for all the people (and our World).
  2. We need to let the people within the annexed territories decide which side they prefer to live under. This referendum (after a period of education) needs to be monitored (fairly and justly) by an independent group. It is essential that the people living in the annexed territories make the final decision on issues of their loyalty and their desires for governance. The international community would honor the VOICE and VOTE of the people in these territories (if this is done fairly and by some independent body). As of today, it appears that the territories are designed (mostly) by the idea that the people must choose who they desire to govern their territory.
  3. We need to honor the voice of the people living in Ukraine (after the above referendum is complete) on the issue of being a NEUTRAL nation (no affiliations with either NATO or the Russian Federation) or being a full NATO nation with the consequences that this would mean for the Russian people. This referendum could not be valid without a full understanding (by the Ukrainian people) of the consequences of joining a Military Alliance (such as NATO) which threatens another nation's Security interests. The benefits of a NEUTRAL Ukraine (after these referendums have been accomplished) would need to be understood so as to prevent a future conflict. Economic and Political aid from the international community would flow in abundance IMO if Ukraine were a NEUTRAL (non-affiliated) nation. The idea of neutrality would promote a peaceful community for all these people.
  4. Both military alliances (NATO and RUSSIAN) should be encouraged to demilitarize and seek a peaceful co-existence (with the people's interests as the final voice in this effort to demilitarize). My sense is that any referendum to demilitarize the various territories would result in a positive vote from the people. Over time, all the territories could be made to be interdependent and peaceful.
  5. A peace proposal which honors the wishes of the majority who must live under this arrangement would be viable and positive IMO. The current WAR would cease as these negotiations ensue. The advantages of living in community would be promoted as the best alternative for continuing peace, security, and happiness. Disbanding all military alliances would reveal the benefits which would accrue to the people. My sense is that this option would be voted on as a GIVEN if the people could vote on these issues.

Conclusion: The current war in Ukraine and Russia is seriously detrimental to all nations on planet Earth. As of today, our leaders are promoting a World War III with their actions. The idea that NATO will win and solve the issues is not viable IMO. The idea that Russia will win and solve the issues is also not viable. We need to STOP the fighting and killing and start a PROCESS of negotiation. This could happen immediately if a FEW key leaders AGREE on this option.

Wiser heads will surface once the fighting and killing stops. Both Putin and Zelenskyy need to stop this war (immediately/now) and agree that negotiation is BETTER than killing innocents. Killing is a negative human action which can not lead to PEACE. Winning via destruction is not possible in today's global world. The mindset of Biden and the WEST needs to change from the idea of WINNING (impossible in an age of nuclear weapons) to peaceful NEGOTIATION (possible as talks bring in wiser heads).

A marketing effort needs to be advanced (right now/immediately) so that a peaceful PROCESS can commence. Select groups and individuals can advance this idea with their internet communications (Now). We could bring this WAR to an END immediately, IF the key LEADERS (Biden, Zelenskyy, Putin, Xi, etc.) agree on the need for a PEACEFUL process of negotiation. Both the WEST and the EAST could advance this PROCESS if a group of thinkers agrees that this is a BETTER option to continuing WAR.

As of today, this WAR is leading to some type of major killing field. Will Ukraine take Crimea by force and will Russia then bomb Kiev? This is what I think could happen if the mindset of our leaders does not change SOON. Russia can not allow its nation to lose Sovereignty over its security interests. Ukraine can not continue its Freedom campaign if its DECISION CENTERS are bombed and destroyed. The WAR has reached a level where decision centers are the NEXT targets for the Russian military. I sense that this destruction will happen (SOON) if some effort is not made to deescalate this WAR.

It is in the interest of both the WEST and the EAST to start a peaceful NEGOTIATION process (immediately). The 8 billion people on this planet would also benefit from this PROCESS. Can killing millions (even billions) of people be a viable SOLUTION to PEACE? Is this WINNING? Who wins when our planet is destroyed by NUCLEAR warfare? It's INSANITY 101 in my view. Now is the time to START a marketing campaign which promotes a peaceful NEGOTIATION process. Get the message out to your friends and associates. A positive outcome could emerge! Continuing the killing is INSANITY. That is my viewpoint. Think for yourself!

I am: Donald B. Swenson, Economist/Philosopher, donaldswenson.blogspot.com

http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com